Gumg

if you're debating a move to portugal remember:
pros:
- 0% tax on longterm crypto gains (held >365 days)
- sunniest country in europe
- ocean is always a few minutes away
- no missiles flying over you, ever
- amazing food
cons:
- very expensive housing and rents
- expensive groceries, restaurants getting there
- bad, slow public services
- horrible bureaucracy for businesses
overall it's a 10/10 if you are financially stable

You have the Iran president apologizing to gulf nations and the IRGC says fuck you and continues to attack everyone
The US/Israel are attacking Iran's Oil facilities and the straight of hormuz activity is dropping hard
Stocks are still pricing in a Trump TACO but Iran may not let it happen cause chaos is the most painful scenario for the US

At what % is the market pricing in a quick resolution of US-Iran war?
I think it is priced in with a high %, making it the perfect reason for the SPY to drop 5%-10%
Trump is a man of markets and he knows stock indexes are still near ATHs. They can prolong this war for more than 1 month before needing to pivot and fix things quickly.
That would be a lot of damage due to disruptions in the Straight of Hormuz.
This would be a perfect support test, making dip buyers greedy again.
FWIW I have no idea where this would put Bitcoin since it tends to act completely random at times.

This is what Claude has to say about Solana
→ SOL is down 68% from its ATH of $293. Same price as early 2021.
→ SOL is a far better asset today than it was in 2021.
++ ETFs
++ 2 Years with no outages
++ Supply is better distributed, no more FTX shadow
++ Flipped Ethereum on almost every metric except for TVL and Market Cap
→ Assuming BTC +$100K, the 1-year base case $180-$250 (50%)
The main risk is complacency. Similar to Ethereum when it downplayed the growth of Solana.

You were DYING to buy $SOL at $290 and COPING for selling lower
Now you see this chart and don't think it's even worth a bounce?
> Yes, it can go lower this year
> Yes, it can bounce to $120 before lower this year
Both outcomes are true, don't forget bear rallies are tough

Hopium of the day: Bitcoin has not closed a single weekly or candle below the 2021 ATH close
It needs to go below $65.5K to do so.
With stocks dumping hard, this could be the week BTC shows strength.

Stock markets are CRASHING today BUT Bitcoin is up 10% from the war flash crash
We all asked ourselves what would happen to Bitcoin if stocks started correcting
So far it is behaving surprisingly well, so much so that the $71K break could happen when stocks find their bottom

blackrock has a $56B bitcoin etf after they max shilled it as a hedge against uncertainty
I'd say there is a LOT of uncertainty around the future
The chop is still a probable scenario but I am bullish for a bounce to near $80K