Harvard University economist admits that his prediction of Bitcoin falling to $100 was wrong.

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff once predicted that the price of Bitcoin was more likely to fall to $100 before reaching $100,000. However, seven years later, the price of Bitcoin not only surpassed $100,000 but also soared over 80% in December 2024, setting a new historical high. In the face of this dramatic market performance, Rogoff admitted that his predictions contained three major errors and reflected on the roots of these mistakes on social media platform X. Although his skeptical attitude towards crypto assets has not changed, this public admission of error has sparked heated discussions in the crypto community and revealed the increasingly important role of Bitcoin in the global financial landscape.

Background of prediction errors

In March 2018, Rogoff predicted on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that the price of Bitcoin would plummet to $100 due to government regulatory pressures. As a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the author of the book "The Dollar: A History of Our Currency" (to be published in May 2025), Rogoff's views attracted widespread attention at the time. However, since then, the price of Bitcoin has soared over 1000%, breaking through $100,000 by December 2024 from its low in 2018, becoming a dark horse in the global financial market.

On August 20, 2025, Rogoff posted on the X platform, publicly reflecting on his prediction mistake: "About ten years ago, I said that Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 rather than $100,000. What did I miss?" He pointed out that his mistakes were mainly focused on three aspects: misjudgment of the regulatory environment, underestimating the potential of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, and neglecting the participation of institutional investors in the crypto market.

Error 1: Overestimated the strength of U.S. regulation

Rogoff first admitted that he was too optimistic about the U.S. government's ability to quickly implement "reasonable regulation" on crypto assets. In 2018, he expected strict regulation to suppress Bitcoin prices, but the reality was quite the opposite. Especially after the Trump administration won the election in November 2024, the policy environment for crypto assets in the U.S. became more lenient, driving up Bitcoin prices. Rogoff stated, "I thought regulation would be in place quickly, but clearly I overestimated that."

In fact, the regulatory framework in the United States has gradually become clearer over the past few years, but it has not delivered a devastating blow to the crypto market. On the contrary, legislative proposals such as the GENIUS Act have provided a clearer regulatory path for stablecoins and crypto assets, attracting more institutional investor participation. This lenient regulatory environment has created fertile ground for the rise of Bitcoin, making Rogoff's predictions seem overly pessimistic.

Error 2: Underestimating the competition between Bitcoin and fiat currency

Rogoff's second mistake is believing that Bitcoin cannot compete with fiat currencies and become the preferred medium of exchange for the global underground economy. He wrote on X: "I do not think Bitcoin can become the transaction tool for the $20 trillion underground economy worldwide." However, reality has proven that Bitcoin has become an important inflation hedge in many countries where local currencies have significantly depreciated. For example, in high-inflation economies such as Venezuela and Argentina, Bitcoin is widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange.

According to Chainalysis data, the amount of illegal activities related to crypto assets in 2024 is approximately $50 billion, accounting for less than 1% of cash laundering amounts. This indicates that, although Bitcoin has some application in the underground economy, its more important role is as a hedge tool for legitimate assets. Rogoff underestimated the attractiveness of Bitcoin in combating the depreciation of fiat currency in the global financial system.

Error Three: Ignoring the Influence of Institutional Investors

Rogoff's third mistake was failing to foresee the acceptance of crypto assets by regulators and large institutional investors. He stated, "I did not anticipate that regulators, especially the overarching regulators, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in crypto assets without seemingly any consequences." This observation points to the tremendous driving force that institutional investors have on the Bitcoin market.

Ironically, Harvard University's own investment behavior also corroborates this trend. According to reports, the Harvard Management Company, which manages Harvard University's $53 billion endowment fund, recently invested $116 million in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. This move indicates that even bastions of traditional finance are beginning to embrace Bitcoin, contrasting sharply with Rogoff's pessimistic predictions.

Response from the Crypto Community: Victory and the Echo Chamber Struggle

Rogoff's public admission of error has sparked a heated reaction in the crypto community, with many viewing it as a symbol of Bitcoin's success. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan responded that Rogoff "failed to envision a decentralized project—one that draws power from the people rather than centralized institutions—achieving such large-scale success." He believes that Bitcoin's rise is attributed to its decentralized nature and the support of a global community.

David Lawant, a researcher at the digital asset brokerage firm FalconX, stated that Rogoff's book "The Curse of Cash" is "very bad" and instead motivated him to invest in Bitcoin. He wrote on X: "It was your book that prompted me to invest in BTC, thank you!" Meanwhile, Matthew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at VanEck, listed Rogoff as the ninth most vehement critic of Bitcoin, accusing him of "writing the obituary for Bitcoin too soon" and "living in an echo chamber." Sigel further pointed out that Rogoff's behavior of restricting replies to his X posts reflects his closed attitude towards different viewpoints.

Sigel emphasized that the success of Bitcoin is derived from several fundamental factors: the continuous devaluation of fiat currency, the transfer of wealth to the younger generation, and the global demand for neutral reserve assets. These factors have collectively driven the transformation of Bitcoin from a fringe asset to a mainstream investment tool.

Reflection and Outlook

Rogoff's acknowledgment of his errors is not only a recognition of the resilience of the Bitcoin market, but also reflects the astonishing evolution of crypto assets over the past decade. From an asset questioned as a bubble to one now widely accepted by institutional investors, Bitcoin's rise challenges the predictive frameworks of traditional economists. Rogoff's reflections remind us that the pace of financial innovation often outstrips the capacity of academic predictions, especially driven by decentralized technology and global market demand.

Despite Rogoff's continued skepticism about Crypto Assets, his public acknowledgment of error provides a moment of victory for the Crypto community. The breakthrough in Bitcoin prices and the influx of institutional investment indicate that Crypto Assets are no longer a fringe phenomenon but an important component of the global financial system. In the future, as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and more institutions get involved, Bitcoin may continue to rewrite the rules of traditional finance.

For investors and observers, Rogoff's story serves as a reminder: maintaining an open mind and sharp insight into new technologies is crucial in the rapidly changing digital economy. As Sigel said, "Fundamentals matter." The success of Bitcoin stems not only from technological innovation but also from the global urgent demand for decentralized, value-storing assets.