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U.S. January ADP employment increased by only 22,000, well below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest level since March 2024. Breakdown data shows manufacturing shed 8,000 jobs, professional/business services cut 57,000 jobs, while healthcare services became the main growth point. The cooling labor market has intensified market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early, with CME tools showing a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in June. As a result, international gold prices rebounded briefly, and the U.S. dollar index came under pressure. Due to a governm

On February 3, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a federal government funding bill, ending a partial government shutdown that began on January 31 due to a bipartisan budget impasse. The shutdown was caused by the Senate-passed appropriations bill on January 30 not being promptly approved by the House of Representatives, leading to a "technical shutdown" of nine departments including the Department of Defense and the Department of the Treasury, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who were forced to take leave. The new bill funds most departments through the end of the fisca

Former U.S. President Trump has repeatedly expressed strong support for cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that the United States needs to maintain its leading position in the global cryptocurrency sector. At the 2026 Davos Forum, he declared that new crypto legislation would open a "new path to financial freedom" and promote the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Since taking office in 2025, Trump signed the "Genius Act" to establish a stablecoin regulatory framework, signed an executive order to promote the construction of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and appointed several industry sup

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced increased volatility, with mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum rapidly retreating from their highs, with daily declines exceeding 5%. The main reason for this correction is the short-term profit-taking, combined with rising expectations of regulatory tightening in some countries. From a technical perspective, this is a normal adjustment after an upward move and does not change the long-term upward trend. Investors should view the fluctuations rationally, focus on the fundamentals of the projects, avoid chasing gains and selling at lows

Technical Support Level: If the price holds above the 72,000-74,000 USD range (recently concentrated chip area and miner cost line), a technical rebound may be triggered. If it effectively breaks below 70,000 USD, caution is needed for further downside risk.
Macro Policy: If the Federal Reserve's February rate decision (February 6) signals dovish stance, it may boost risk assets; additionally, clarity on the US "CLARITY Act" legislative progress could alleviate regulatory uncertainty.
Capital Flows: Continuous net inflows into spot ETFs (e.g., over 500 million USD in a single day) or increased

The US PPI data for December 2025 exceeded expectations, rising 0.5% month-on-month (previously 0.2%), and up 3% year-on-year; core PPI increased 0.7% month-on-month (previously 0%), and 3.3% year-on-year, both surpassing market expectations. Breakdown shows significant increases in service costs, with trade profit margins reaching a new high since mid-2024, primarily driven by wholesale profit margins for machinery and equipment; although overall commodity prices remained flat due to falling energy prices, core commodities (such as home appliances and construction machinery) continued to acce

Based on current market forecasts and the dynamics of the Trump administration, the most popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair is Rick Rieder, Chief Bond Investment Officer at BlackRock. As of January 24, 2026, his probability of being elected on the prediction platform Polymarket has surged to 54%, far surpassing former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (26%) and current Governor Christopher Waller (11%). Rieder has received positive feedback from the bond market for advocating to cut the federal funds rate from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%, supporting a pause in balance sheet reduction

The Federal Reserve announced on January 28, 2026, that the target range for the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. This is the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025, mainly due to persistent inflation (December CPI year-over-year 2.7%) and the labor market remaining unexpectedly strong (unemployment rate 4.4%). Although non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December, the economy continues to expand steadily, with GDP growth revised up to 4.4%. Voting against were Directors Milan and Waller, who advocated for a 25 ba

Will the correlation between gold and Bitcoin continue? It requires a comprehensive assessment based on their attributes and the market environment. In the long term, both are regarded as "inflation-hedging assets" and tend to move together during periods of macro liquidity easing and rising geopolitical risks (e.g., the 2024 Fed rate cut expectations driving Bitcoin and gold to break previous highs simultaneously). However, short-term divergence is significant: gold relies on central bank reserves and institutional credit, with low volatility (annualized about 15%), providing stronger defense

In January 2026, the confrontation between the US and Iran continued to escalate. The United States dispatched the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group into Middle Eastern waters, deploying F-15E fighters and missile defense systems to establish military deterrence against Iran. Iran responded by erecting large anti-American propaganda posters depicting US aircraft carriers being bombed, and warned that any attack would result in strikes against US military bases and Israel. Trump claimed to have assembled a fleet larger than Venezuela's, while also stating that diplomacy remains an

The 2025 US stock market's "Big Seven" earnings reports show divergence: Microsoft (Azure cloud revenue up 40%), Meta (ad revenue up 21%), and Apple (iPhone sales rebound) performed steadily, with net profits increasing by 12%, 36%, and 7% respectively; Amazon (AWS growth 19%) and Alphabet (cloud business growth slowed to 30%) faced market skepticism due to a surge in capital expenditures (totaling over $300 billion); Tesla's net profit plummeted 71% year-over-year, making it the only company with declining revenue and profit. Industry-wide challenges become more apparent: AI infrastructure in

Recently, leading global digital asset management firm Grayscale submitted a BNB ETF application to the U.S. SEC, attracting market attention. BNB, as the core token of the Binance ecosystem, carries multiple values such as trading fee discounts and ecosystem rights. If approved, it will promote BNB into the mainstream institutional asset allocation horizon, enhance liquidity and compliance attributes, and may become another milestone in the institutionalization process of crypto assets. Currently, BNB is temporarily reported at XX USD, and the market is awaiting regulatory feedback.

The escalation of the US-Iran situation impacts the global market through energy and supply chain shocks. Geopolitical tensions drive up oil premiums, and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt 20% of global oil transportation, intensifying supply shortage risks. Iran, as China's main source of methanol imports (accounting for 6.42%), may impact the chemical supply chain amid the conflict. Meanwhile, risk aversion sentiment has pushed gold and silver prices to record highs, with risks spilling over into the metals market. The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Iran and increa

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee was originally scheduled to review the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) on January 15, 2026, but the hearing was postponed due to Coinbase withdrawing support. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, but the core controversy centers on the restrictions on stablecoin yield: prohibiting exchanges from offering interest rewards to users holding stablecoins, which directly impacts Coinbase's $1.4 billion annual interest business model. Traditional banks are concerned that such operations constitute "

The 2026 Davos World Economic Forum will be held from January 19 to 23 in Switzerland, with the theme of "The Spirit of Dialogue," focusing on geopolitical cooperation, technological innovation, and sustainable development. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized adherence to multilateralism, promoting inclusive and equitable economic globalization, and showcased China's leading achievements in AI applications, green energy, and other fields. U.S. President Trump's speech sparked controversy, with his tough stance on Greenland sovereignty and European policies raising concerns among attendee

The 2026 Davos World Economic Forum will be held from January 19 to 23 in Switzerland, with the theme of "The Spirit of Dialogue." It attracted nearly 3,000 political and business leaders from over 130 countries, setting a record for government participation. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng put forward four key proposals, including firm support for free trade and the maintenance of multilateralism, emphasizing that China will continue to inject stability into global growth. This year's forum focuses on the large-scale application of AI technology, with executives from companies like Microsoft a

As of January 21, 2026, the final candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair has not yet been determined, but the main contenders are focused on the following four individuals:
Kevin Hasset (Chair of the White House National Economic Council): A core aide to Trump, advocating for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but markets are concerned that his close ties to Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Chris Waller (Federal Reserve Board Member): A dovish representative supporting gradual rate cuts, considered a candidate with strong independence due to his

The aggressive accumulation strategy of Strategy is both a bet by enterprises on the long-term value of Bitcoin and a microcosm of the evolving perception of crypto assets in the capital markets. Its success depends on two core factors: whether Bitcoin's price can break through the narrative of inflation hedging, and whether corporate capital structures can withstand cyclical fluctuations. If both continue to reinforce each other positively, it could lead more traditional institutions to reshape their asset allocation strategies.

The US core CPI year-over-year increased by 2.6% in December 2025, below the expected 2.7%, and the month-over-month growth rate of 0.2% also underperformed expectations, indicating a continued cooling of inflation. Housing costs remain the main driver, rising 0.4% month-over-month, but food prices saw a narrower increase of 0.7% (partially offset by beef shortages and a plunge in egg prices), and energy prices rose slightly by 0.3% month-over-month. Core goods prices showed no month-over-month growth, and prices for sensitive categories such as used cars and clothing stabilized, reflecting a

The US core CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.6% year-on-year and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, both below market expectations, indicating that the inflation cooling trend continues. Housing costs (up 0.4% month-on-month) remain the main driver, but the 0.7% month-on-month increase in food prices and the rebound in energy prices (up 0.3% month-on-month) show price stickiness. After the data was released, the market's probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April rose to 42%, but the probability of maintaining the current rate at the January policy meeting remains at 95%. Federal R